Thinking in futures.
We are always thinking in futures, futures derived from experience and futures we manifest and believe are possible without evidence. Humans are future oriented and we think in possible futures constantly. Most often we are thinking in part-based futures, we project our past forward and often assume that what we have already experienced is likely going to happen again.
Using experiences to make decisions is often helpful, however, there are times when the context of our pasts (e.g. the circumstances of that time) are not going to exist in the future so our experiences may not help in a volatile and uncertain future.
Another way that we create a future is to imagine something brand new based only on a desire to see something profound come into existence. Think about learning to ride a bike. You didn't have any previous bike riding experience, there was nothing to suggest you had all the skills to ride the bike. However, you likely imagined that it was possible for you, all it was going to take was a plan of action that would have your possible bike riding future become a reality.
It is this approach to futures thinking we used to support our clients and this article will focus on the process that we use to set strategic roadmaps that enable organizations to evolve into what they intend to be. At a high level, it usually involves a three-step process that leverages two futures thinking frameworks that help to discern what could be, what is in the way, and how to plot a path forward.
Step 1. Waking Up In The Future
Start by imagining a future world, what it physically looks like, what could be happening in the world... it is about being tangible not theoretical. Set a time horizon that is meaningful to you and begin to think about how life is different in this future, what new relationships exist, how are your customers, staff, and partners/collaborators benefiting in your desired future. What is working well and benefiting many?
To guide this conversation, we typically use two processes frameworks, the three horizons framework and the iceberg model. If you think about it in terms of the three horizons framework, you are looking to bring life and some clarity to horizon three. We identify what will exist in the future as a result of the, yet to be determined, approaches, strategies, and mindsets you will use to get there.
To further illuminate the way the desired future looks we used the iceberg model to imagine what the mental models, structures, patterns of behavior, and results that will be common in the future.
Note: this is about being ‘pie-in-the-sky'...although a dash of whimsy helps. You’re not trying to create utopia rather it is about dreaming and bringing into view a destination that matters to you/your organization/community.
Step 2. Revealing What Is Stuck
After you have taken this look into the future it is time to snap back to the present day and look around at what currently exists. You want to ask the question, “what currently exists that does/is going to get in the way of the desired future from happening?” It's about taking a critical look at what is keeping the status quo in place. It is important in this step to be honest about not only the dynamics that are ‘out-there’ in community/society/the market, but it is also equally (if not even more important) to reveal those things that are internal to you/your organization/business that is contributing to a problematic status quo.
From the frameworks, we are talking about horizon one. These are the things that may be prevalent now, however you want their prevalence to decrease over time. The iceberg model is very useful in this step as you can really bring some light to the way things currently are by starting at the ‘top’ of the iceberg by identifying:
The things we see on a day-to-day basis (results)
The trends and ways of working that exist (patterns of behaviour)
The current policies, program, business models (structures)
The outdated value systems (mental models) that are perpetuating the challenges
Step 3. Plotting a transition
Once you have brought life to a desired future and have examined the current state you can stand between the two places and begin to identify how you want to move. The last step is to create a strategic roadmap to move from present to future. This less about tactics and more about strategies and tethering where you want to go with how you are going to get there.
This strategic transition, or horizon two, is all about evolving existing and establishing new mental models and ways of working that set the trajectory towards that desired future. You want to explore the question, “If we want to get to our desired future, what do we have to change/create and why?”
We hope this strategy framework roadmap is something that can be used or adapted for your benefit. Please contact me at rhea.kachroo@jfive.com to learn more.
